Authors: Capt Allen J. DeNeve, USAF, Lt Col Erin T. Ryan, USAF, Lt Col Jonathan D. Ritschel, USAF, and Christine Schubert Kabban
Cost growth is a persistent adversary to efficient budgeting in the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact. A key reason may be that DoD cost estimates are formulated using the highly unrealistic assumption that a program’s current baseline characteristics will not change in the future. Using a weather forecasting analogy, the authors demonstrate how a statistical approach may be used to account for these inevitable baseline changes and identify related cost growth trends. These trends are then used to reduce the error in initial acquisition cost estimates by over one third for major defense acquisition programs, representing a more efficient allocation of $6 billion annually.
To print a PDF version of this article, click here.
Authors: Eileen P. Whaley and Dana L. Stewart
The United States went to war in the Middle East with a warfighter partially equipped to defeat the ever-evolving threats the enemy brought into the operational theater. In response, units were equipped with urgent, unique solutions that countered the threat. The vulnerability of units in urban hostile situations is one example that led to the development of the Lethal Miniature Aerial Munition System to improve survivability for the troops. The solutions became enduring capabilities, leading the way and bringing a program from fulfilling an urgent need to a Program of Record, with emphasis on the Capabilities Development for Rapid Transition. This article addresses current policies, procedures, processes, and required actions associated with that effort.